Inflation Most Severe Risk of Iran, Interstate Armed Conflict Top Risk of Japan
The World Economic Forum has released its 2024 Global Risks Report earlier this month as experts identified misinformation, disinformation and extreme weather events as the two most severe risks to the economies over the next two years.
The gloomy report published by the Geneva-based international organization for public-private cooperation on January 20 has identified the most severe risks posing to Iran and Japan over a two-year period as inflation and interstate armed conflict, respectively.
This is the first time in the survey’s near-two-decade history that misinformation and disinformation has risen to the first place in rankings as elections in several economies will take place over the next two years. Close to three billion people are set to cast votes in countries – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States – in the next two years.
Views of about 1,500 global risks experts, policymakers, and industry leaders, have helped the World Economic Forum to prepare the detailed report about challenges facing the world. The world’s second-to five-most severe risks over the short term are societal polarization, cyber insecurity and interstate armed conflicts.
“The impacts of extreme weather may deplete available economic resources to mitigate and adapt to climate change,” the report reads, adding, “Increasing vulnerabilities, brought about by resource stress, conflict and increasing polarization, could expose societies and whole economies to crime and corruption. Exponential technology growth may leave the next generation without a clear path to improve human potential, security and wellbeing.”
The report, which is set against a backdrop of rapidly accelerating technological change and economic uncertainty, says that the world is facing “multiple long-term structural transformations: the rise of AI, climate change, a shift in the geopolitical distribution of power, and demographic transitions”.
It has suggested “localized strategies, breakthrough endeavors, collective actions and cross-border coordination” could play a role in addressing these risks.
Meanwhile, the report, in its Executive Opinion Survey (EOS), has listed the top five risks facing each country including Iran and Japan. Questions including “Which five risks are the most likely to pose the biggest threat to your country in the next two years?” were asked from over 11,000 business leaders in 113 economies to conduct the Executive Opinion Survey.
The survey says that top five risks posing the most severe threat to the Islamic Republic of Iran over the next two years are identified as inflation, water-supply shortage, erosion of social cohesion, inequality (wealth, income) and economic downturn.
While Japan, the world’s third economy, seems to face the top five risks of interstate armed conflict, labor shortage, economic downturn, non-weather-related natural disasters and extreme weather events over the two-year horizon.